Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Draft Fever

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Now that the 2011 Draft is over, lets take a look ahead at some of the players the Bengals could target in 2012 and the strategy they should start looking at as far as working the draft next season.

As far as the projected needs the Bengals have you would have to think that Runningback, Offensive Line, and Defensive Line will be the three biggest. That is if they are able to keep Joseph and Hall to give them that elite CB tandem. If not that becomes one of the biggest needs as well.

At Runningback I have four players currently in my top 50 at that position. Of course college player rankings will change big time by next season, but that could mean more or it could also mean less depth at the position. The two big names are Trent Richardson and Knile Davis for now. They currently are 11th and 15th on the Big Board and both are projected to go off the board in the top 25 picks. Lamicheal James looks to be a borderline 1st/2nd round projection and Cyrus Gray a mid second rounder. This position could be a need this year if the Bengals do not get Benson resigned. Either way you would have to think it will be a one year deal if they do retain him and next April the Bengals will be in the market for a RB.

That said RB is no longer a high value position in the NFL. I'm a believer that a good offensive line makes a RB, not the other way around, for the most part. There are special players such as Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson, but they are the exception. The only thing is there could be one of those special players in this draft in Trent Richardson. He has a rare blend of size, power, and speed like AP and CJ2K. If he shows this year at Alabama that he is that elite guy then I would have no problem if he was the Bengals pick. Especially if they are picking in the middle of the round like I expect they will. If he doesn't show that now that he is THE GUY at Alabama then the best strategy would be to wait. Good RB's can be had later in drafts, especially with the way they slide due to teams not valuing that position anymore.

If Andre Smith still doesn't show anything again this season then it's time to declare him a bust and either move him to Guard or move on from him entirely. I personally would like them to move him to RG for Bobbie Williams. I think he can be more effective when not in space. Right now that's my most perferred route is to do that and draft an OT in the first round next season. The position is absolutely loaded with four players in the top 15, six that could possibly go in the 1st round and seven in the top 50 and maybe more than that. There is the big four OT's with Kalil, Martin, Reiff, and Adams. If the Bengals are sitting around 15 in the draft order they should be able to get one of those four. If not they can always go DT, get some help against the run, and take the OT in the second round. Many of the 2nd round OT's next year could very well be 1st rounders in any other year that the position isn't quite as stacked.

With a new franchise QB, possibly a new RB, and a pleathora of young weapons at WR and TE if the line is built right this offense could be a top 5 offense in the NFL for years to come. No team has a better young group of WR's/TE's than the Bengals do with Green, Simpson, Shipley, and Gresham. If Dalton pans out at all this offense should score 25 plus points a game with a decent offensive line.

Now the defense was dominant in 2009, but in 2010 it didn't play so well. I expect that it gets back to being good with Zimmer at the helm, but they need some more players up front to either develop or some early round talent through the draft. The peices are in place for the most part. One area they did struggle was against the run last year. Peko needs some help on the interior of the defensive line. They need another one of those jumbo run stuffers in there next to him. Usually the only way to get one through the draft is to use your first round pick if you want someone that can move and has some athleticism for that size.

This is the one area of need that isn't quite as deep in next year's draft so far. Players will likely emerge though, look at Fairley this year at Auburn. Right now though there are a few potential 1st rounders that would be a good fit in the Bengals 4-3 defense at DT. Worthy is the big name as a potential top 5-10 pick in next year's draft. There's also Crick and Forston who are projected 1st rounders at this point for next year's draft. Really though after that there's only one other player in my top 50 and that is Powell from North Carolina and he's really more suited for DE in a 3-4 defense, though he could play DT in a 4-3 if he bulked up a bit. As of now there doesn't look to be a whole lot of prospects for the 2nd round, and if this remains the case and the Bengals continue to struggle against the run they may be forced to use their 1st round pick on a DT or go after someone in free agency. DT's in free agency cost a lot of money! The good ones do at least. Look at Haynesworth. If players don't emerge the best strategy would then be to go DT in the 1st and then OT and RB in the 2nd and 3rd depending on who's available when they pick.

So that basically sums up what the Bengals could potentially be looking at as far as next year's draft goes. For the most part the positions they look to need the most are going to be loaded except for DT. I'm not really that concerned about that either as defensive line seems to be the position where the most players emerge every season. Look at this year, I think 12 defensive lineman ended up going in the 1st round and when I looked ahead to the 2011 draft last year there weren't nearly that many top prospects at the position. So things should set up for the Bengals to have another excellent draft in 2012 and that would be their fourth in a row. In 2009 that was the Maualuga/Johnson steals in the 2nd and 3rd, plus Bernard Scott in the sixth. In 2010, Gresham, Shipley, and Geno Atkins. Then this year Green/Dalton QB/WR combo plus a steal with Boling in the 4th. Having this many consecutive good drafts is what builds Super Bowl Champions and the Bengals may be another good draft or two away from doing just that.

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