Some Thoughts on the Reds

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The other day they were talking about Aroldis Chapman's role on the Reds this year. Will he be the closer if Cordero struggles? I don't think they are going to put that pressure on him with the little amount of experience he has in the Major Leagues. Plus he has been a starter before and I'd like to see them get more use out of him. For example if they need to get out of a jam in the sixth I'd like to see them bring him in to finish out that inning and then come in for the seventh. That will set up Masset to pitch the eighth and Cordero the ninth. With those three in the back end of that bullpen the Reds will basically be shortening the game to six innings. If they have a lead after six they are going to win 95% of those games.

The Reds told Janish the job was his at Shortstop this year. He is a very good defensive SS and with the pitching the Reds have he doesn't have to put up big numbers at the plate. That being said so far this spring he has been hitting the ball well. If he can bat .275 this year that's icing on the cake with the rest of the lineup the Reds have to go with that pitching.

Homer Bailey gets the start today as he is battling for basically the last spot on the pitching rotation with Mike Leake. They say it's a four man race for two spots with Bailey, Wood, Leake, and Lecure, but I think Wood has a spot as he's a lefty in a rotation that's all right handed and he's the best pitcher of the group. That basically leaves one spot open and I don't think Lecure is going to get it. That leaves Bailey against Leake for the final spot and you would have to think Bailey is going to win that competition. I personally like Leake better, but Bailey is more experienced and has a higher ceiling. It doesn't matter though as every year pitchers miss time with injury so this is a good problem to have. I don't think they should make Leake a long reliever, he would be better served to go down to Louisville and pitch every five days that'll have him more prepared to be a starter when he does get called up.

Some of the young prospects are having huge Spring Trainings and one or more could be a suprise on the 25 man roster. I know the sample size is small but Zach Cozart is hitting .455, Devin Mesoraco .444, Yonder Alonso .417, and Chris Valaika .385. Alonso is probably going to make the team but the rest aren't expected to make it. This is also a good problem to have as all these guys are going to be pushing some of the guys on the team for spots very soon which is only going to make the team even better by individual performance and team depth. The Reds have one of the best farm systems stocked with talent in all of baseball. This is how a team that is a mid market team is going to have to compete for World Series championships. What this does is allow the Reds to not have to pay that huge third contract to a player and not get hamstrung by having to pay players 20 million plus a year. It also gives them an option if they are contenders to make a deal at the trade deadline if they need to, possibly a stud Left Fielder or an ace of a staff on the last year of his deal on a losing team.

Another good problem the Reds have is Daryl Thompson is back from injury and is throwing the ball really well. That adds another player competing for a spot in the bullpen. Some good pitchers that are throwing the ball well aren't going to make the team because there isn't enough room for them and that's an excellent problem to have. In the bullpen you have locks like Cordero, Chapman, Masset, Burton, and probably Bray. I don't know how many they are going to keep in the bullpen, my guess is seven or eight. So that leaves two or three spots, probably three. So you have Thompson, Ondrusek, possibly Maloney and Lecure, Arredondo, Herrara, and Dontrel Willis for three spots. Maloney and Lecure will likely go to Louisville and be starters, so you have five pitchers battling for two or three spots. I think Ondrusek is going to get one of those spots and if they keep eight in the pen the other two will go to Willis and Thompson. That could leave Herrera who has been in the major leagues for a few years on the outside looking in and frankly I haven't been impressed with him at all. Arredondo is young and promising and if they can get him on the 40 man it'd be good to get him in their farm system. Like I said earlier pitchers are going to get hurt and you can't have too much depth at the position. That's why I'm never high on trading a young arm unless the deal is just too good to pass up on.